Retail prices of diesel have to be hiked by Rs 15.35 per litre if oil refiners are to break even on sales of the fuel. However, the government is more likely to go for a moderate increase that will strike a balance between risking the ire of consumers and reducing its subsidy, feel experts. In 2011-12, diesel accounted for around 59 per cent of the total under-recoveries of Rs 1.38 lakh crore incurred by public sector oil marketing companies on subsidised fuels.