BJP-JD(U): on the brink?

How will a break-up between Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) and the BJP affect the outcome of the 2014 Lok Sabha poll and the 2015 Bihar assembly election? Consider first the Lok Sabha poll. In the last five general elections (1996-2009), the Congress has registered an average voteshare of 27.60% and won an average of 149 parliamentary seats. The BJP during the same period has averaged 22.12% voteshare and 156 seats. This means that the BJP with 5.48% lower national voteshare, averaged out over the 1996...

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